***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.5 15.2 98.0 61.6 49.0 4.2 7.0 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.7 12.9 94.9 60.7 48.1 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.5 14.8 100.4 62.3 49.3 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.7 15.3 88.0 56.0 47.1 5.3 9.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.3 14.6 87.9 56.0 47.2 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.0 17.3 88.5 55.0 47.2 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.1 12.3 88.7 58.1 45.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.6 17.7 96.1 59.0 49.2 9.3 14.4 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.8 7.6 14.2 82.6 53.6 45.2 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.2 17.1 88.0 55.0 46.6 4.3 7.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.5 13.9 86.4 55.0 46.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 14.7 90.5 57.2 47.8 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.4 16.1 87.9 55.1 47.3 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.8 21.0 105.1 63.5 52.9 5.4 9.4 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.1 14.3 87.4 57.3 47.0 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.8 8.6 14.4 85.9 54.4 46.4 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.0 7.4 12.3 90.3 59.2 47.2 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.0 19.7 93.6 57.7 48.7 4.7 8.7 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.8 13.6 99.0 62.1 49.4 3.3 5.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.2 21.5 99.8 60.3 50.7 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.0 14.1 88.0 56.8 47.0 3.3 5.7 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.7 13.1 91.2 59.2 48.6 2.3 4.9 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.6 14.8 102.1 62.8 50.1 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.5 18.1 98.8 60.8 50.2 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.3 16.3 90.3 57.5 48.2 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.7 15.1 89.9 56.3 47.8 4.1 7.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.2 15.9 93.7 59.5 48.2 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.9 14.5 85.9 55.3 46.2 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.8 20.8 98.9 60.1 50.5 7.4 12.6 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.6 13.7 99.0 62.1 48.7 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------