***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 31.8 40.6 51.7 85.8 43.7 40.8 33.5 44.9 57.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 25.5 32.5 43.5 83.0 42.4 40.4 27.1 37.1 48.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 32.3 42.7 50.2 86.0 44.2 41.3 35.1 46.9 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 47.8 53.9 52.1 78.1 36.1 35.8 51.8 62.9 74.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 32.9 38.7 52.4 80.4 37.6 37.0 35.2 48.9 64.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 37.0 42.7 60.9 85.2 40.6 39.3 38.4 48.2 58.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 23.1 29.9 43.1 82.0 41.8 40.0 24.6 35.3 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 69.4 80.1 64.1 91.5 46.7 44.5 71.2 82.2 93.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 33.8 38.6 53.3 80.8 38.0 37.5 35.5 46.4 58.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 42.9 50.2 63.2 86.4 41.9 40.8 44.5 55.6 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 34.3 39.9 51.8 80.8 37.3 37.0 37.0 48.2 60.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 38.9 46.7 54.6 87.0 43.4 41.5 40.7 50.3 60.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 41.6 48.5 58.2 83.7 39.9 38.2 44.7 54.3 64.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 42.9 54.8 68.3 90.8 47.8 45.7 44.4 56.3 69.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 27.6 34.7 47.2 77.5 39.2 37.5 30.6 41.9 55.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 35.3 41.3 52.9 81.0 37.8 36.8 38.3 49.3 61.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.2 32.0 41.7 80.6 41.2 40.1 27.3 37.5 48.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 41.5 50.6 70.8 91.1 46.5 44.4 42.7 52.9 63.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 26.6 35.9 45.5 84.8 43.7 41.2 28.6 40.3 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 54.3 51.0 79.5 97.5 52.4 49.0 39.6 49.4 60.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 29.3 34.9 50.8 81.1 38.9 38.1 31.3 42.0 54.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 24.9 32.8 45.1 84.0 43.4 41.8 26.4 37.2 50.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.9 37.2 49.2 86.7 45.2 42.4 30.0 40.1 51.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 39.1 49.1 62.2 88.7 45.3 43.0 41.4 52.4 64.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 33.2 40.0 56.4 81.4 38.7 37.9 36.2 48.1 61.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 37.5 45.1 58.7 89.6 45.9 43.0 38.0 47.4 57.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 30.2 39.2 55.0 85.0 42.5 40.3 32.1 45.2 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 33.0 38.6 49.8 77.7 37.1 36.2 36.2 46.2 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 78.9 72.5 75.5 95.2 50.5 47.5 58.6 72.2 86.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 24.5 32.6 46.1 85.9 44.6 41.7 26.6 35.8 46.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------