***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 8.0 12.5 11.1 5.5 99.2 98.6 4.6 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.5 11.4 10.2 4.9 98.7 98.2 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.2 14.7 10.9 5.1 98.9 98.4 6.7 8.0 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 4.7 9.0 7.7 4.7 98.0 96.8 0.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 6.6 10.4 9.0 4.9 98.4 97.8 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 5.3 8.3 6.0 4.9 97.6 97.0 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.6 10.3 5.0 98.7 98.1 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.8 4.8 6.3 4.9 97.6 97.3 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.2 11.2 8.8 4.6 99.2 98.8 4.3 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.2 7.1 4.7 98.1 97.8 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 6.9 10.1 8.1 4.5 98.4 98.0 4.0 5.1 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 5.7 8.9 7.3 4.9 97.9 97.5 2.5 3.7 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 6.3 9.0 6.8 4.2 97.1 96.6 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.3 8.6 4.6 98.8 98.6 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 7.8 10.3 8.3 3.8 96.8 95.6 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 7.8 11.1 7.5 4.5 98.0 97.4 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.6 10.8 9.9 4.7 98.2 97.6 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.5 7.2 7.0 5.0 98.3 98.1 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.5 11.4 10.1 4.8 98.9 98.5 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 97.6 97.3 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.5 11.7 10.2 4.8 98.8 98.3 4.1 5.3 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.8 9.7 4.4 97.8 97.3 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 6.8 10.9 10.0 4.9 99.3 99.0 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.5 8.7 4.6 98.7 98.4 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.6 12.2 10.4 5.5 99.0 98.3 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.1 8.8 6.4 4.8 97.3 96.8 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 9.1 14.5 10.8 5.5 98.8 98.1 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 6.0 8.9 7.8 4.2 96.5 95.3 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 4.9 8.5 6.2 5.1 97.6 97.4 1.3 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 8.2 12.5 10.6 5.1 99.0 98.5 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------