***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.4 8.6 0.3 55.3 55.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.9 8.2 0.3 55.3 55.1 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.9 8.7 0.4 56.9 56.4 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.7 6.2 0.5 59.2 58.3 2.0 3.1 4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.8 6.4 0.4 57.7 57.1 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.1 4.3 0.6 60.2 59.1 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.0 8.3 0.3 55.5 55.2 5.7 6.7 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.1 -0.3 4.4 0.7 61.7 60.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 6.6 0.4 57.7 56.9 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.7 5.2 0.6 59.6 58.4 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.5 5.7 0.6 60.2 58.9 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.2 5.1 0.7 62.1 60.4 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 0.5 58.2 57.3 4.7 5.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.0 6.6 0.4 57.8 57.1 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.9 7.6 7.3 0.6 61.7 60.1 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.9 7.2 5.2 0.6 60.0 58.8 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.1 8.1 0.3 54.2 54.2 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.7 4.8 0.6 60.2 58.9 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.9 8.2 0.4 56.2 56.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.8 2.0 2.5 0.6 60.7 59.8 0.6 1.4 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.5 8.0 0.4 56.6 56.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.3 7.9 0.3 55.7 55.6 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.6 8.2 0.5 58.0 57.4 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 0.5 58.8 57.8 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.6 7.2 0.3 55.1 55.1 5.2 6.3 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.9 4.2 0.5 59.6 58.3 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.0 8.0 0.3 54.7 54.6 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.7 6.4 0.6 60.3 59.0 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.9 4.1 0.6 60.2 59.2 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.1 8.4 0.4 56.1 55.7 5.7 6.8 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------