***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.5 8.7 8.9 -0.3 44.9 45.6 8.0 9.1 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.1 8.6 -0.3 45.4 46.5 7.1 8.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.8 9.0 -0.3 44.1 45.4 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.4 6.3 -0.4 42.9 44.6 3.5 4.9 6.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.5 6.6 6.5 -0.3 44.2 45.6 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.4 4.5 -0.1 47.5 47.5 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.2 8.7 -0.3 44.9 46.0 7.2 8.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.0 0.4 4.6 -0.1 48.6 49.2 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.3 6.9 -0.3 44.9 46.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.4 5.5 -0.2 46.9 47.7 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.8 6.0 -0.2 45.4 46.6 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.4 5.3 -0.2 46.8 47.7 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.1 6.5 4.7 -0.3 45.0 45.5 5.8 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.9 6.9 -0.2 45.7 47.0 7.1 8.2 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 7.1 7.8 7.4 -0.3 43.6 44.7 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.5 7.7 5.4 -0.3 44.8 45.7 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.5 8.5 -0.3 44.9 46.5 7.6 8.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.4 5.0 -0.1 47.1 47.9 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.0 8.6 -0.3 45.0 46.2 7.1 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.5 2.8 0.1 51.1 50.9 1.5 2.5 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.2 8.2 -0.3 44.6 45.7 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.6 8.3 -0.3 44.8 46.6 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.7 8.5 -0.3 44.5 45.9 6.9 8.0 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.2 6.7 -0.3 44.6 46.1 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.8 7.5 -0.3 44.9 45.8 6.8 8.1 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.5 4.4 -0.2 46.4 46.7 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.1 8.3 -0.3 44.8 45.5 7.0 8.6 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.9 6.5 -0.4 43.2 44.4 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.9 4.5 -0.1 48.9 49.3 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.3 8.8 -0.3 45.3 46.2 7.2 8.6 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------