***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 8.1 9.0 9.5 2.1 90.2 85.8 6.3 7.0 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.8 9.0 1.9 89.6 85.0 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 9.6 10.6 9.5 2.0 89.8 85.4 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 4.2 5.1 6.6 1.8 88.5 83.8 2.2 3.0 3.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 6.6 7.5 7.3 1.9 88.6 84.6 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 5.5 6.3 4.9 2.0 89.8 86.0 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 7.8 8.8 9.0 1.9 89.6 85.1 5.9 6.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 0.2 1.1 5.0 2.0 89.3 85.8 -1.7 -1.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 7.1 8.0 7.4 1.8 89.2 85.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 7.2 8.0 5.8 1.9 88.7 85.0 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 6.9 7.6 6.6 1.8 88.7 84.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 5.5 6.4 5.8 1.9 89.6 86.0 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 6.5 7.2 5.3 1.7 87.3 83.5 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 7.7 8.5 7.3 1.8 89.4 84.9 6.0 6.7 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 7.7 8.3 7.7 1.6 88.0 83.1 6.3 6.8 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.5 6.0 1.8 88.5 84.6 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 7.8 8.6 8.8 1.8 88.5 83.8 6.1 6.8 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 5.1 5.8 5.5 2.0 89.7 85.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 7.6 8.6 8.9 1.9 89.7 85.1 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 2.5 3.3 3.5 2.2 89.7 86.4 0.7 1.4 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 7.3 8.2 8.8 1.9 88.9 84.6 5.5 6.2 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 7.0 7.7 8.6 1.7 88.2 83.2 5.4 6.1 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 7.2 8.0 8.8 1.9 90.2 85.7 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 7.0 7.8 7.3 1.8 89.6 85.3 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 7.6 8.6 8.4 2.1 89.6 85.5 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 6.3 7.0 4.9 1.9 89.0 85.5 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 8.4 9.5 9.0 2.1 89.7 85.6 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 5.9 6.6 6.9 1.7 87.5 82.7 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 4.5 5.5 4.8 2.1 89.8 86.2 2.5 3.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 8.0 9.1 9.2 2.0 90.2 85.7 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------