***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 19.5 20.7 18.4 -0.2 46.5 46.9 19.7 21.0 22.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.9 20.5 18.3 -0.3 46.3 47.1 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 18.8 20.3 18.6 -0.2 46.9 46.7 19.1 20.6 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.1 13.1 16.2 -0.2 47.4 47.3 11.6 13.3 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 18.9 20.7 16.9 -0.1 48.5 47.8 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 16.9 18.8 14.6 -0.1 48.9 47.6 17.3 18.9 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 18.7 20.1 18.3 -0.3 45.9 47.0 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.2 8.2 15.2 0.0 49.6 48.3 6.7 8.2 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 18.4 20.2 17.2 -0.1 48.9 47.9 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 18.4 20.2 16.0 0.0 49.8 48.4 18.8 20.2 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 18.4 20.4 16.6 0.0 49.7 48.5 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 17.5 19.4 16.1 -0.1 49.2 48.2 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 18.3 20.3 15.4 -0.1 49.3 48.2 18.7 20.3 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 18.7 20.5 17.0 0.0 49.4 48.3 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 18.5 20.2 17.0 -0.3 46.3 46.7 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 18.7 20.8 16.1 0.0 49.4 48.2 19.2 20.8 22.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 18.4 19.8 18.2 -0.3 45.6 46.8 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 18.0 19.8 15.6 0.0 50.0 48.5 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 18.5 20.1 18.4 -0.2 47.0 47.3 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.7 14.6 13.0 0.0 49.3 48.3 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 18.8 20.3 18.0 -0.2 47.4 47.0 19.0 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 18.8 20.3 18.1 -0.3 45.9 46.8 19.1 20.7 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 18.8 20.5 18.5 -0.1 48.5 48.0 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 18.4 20.1 17.0 -0.1 49.2 47.9 18.7 20.1 21.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 18.8 20.2 16.9 -0.2 46.7 47.1 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 17.4 19.3 15.2 -0.1 48.7 47.9 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.1 17.7 -0.2 46.8 47.3 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 18.4 20.3 16.5 -0.2 47.5 47.2 19.0 20.5 22.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.8 14.7 14.7 0.0 50.3 48.8 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 18.6 20.1 18.3 -0.2 46.5 47.1 18.9 20.4 21.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------