***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.9 6.0 10.9 69.3 46.7 40.4 3.7 6.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 5.8 9.3 67.6 45.0 38.9 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.5 10.6 66.9 45.4 39.5 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 9.1 13.2 70.1 48.2 44.0 5.9 9.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.5 7.0 11.8 62.4 44.0 38.9 4.7 8.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 6.4 13.9 74.1 46.9 43.5 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.3 9.2 66.7 44.6 37.2 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 6.5 9.3 14.4 70.4 44.0 39.2 6.2 11.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.9 12.3 68.8 45.9 40.9 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.0 7.3 15.0 70.3 43.9 39.1 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.0 6.3 12.1 65.3 45.1 38.1 4.1 7.2 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.3 4.6 11.5 66.1 43.8 38.8 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.6 12.7 64.0 43.0 37.5 4.0 6.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 7.5 13.5 65.2 43.6 38.4 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 14.0 87.6 58.4 52.5 2.6 4.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.1 11.1 59.9 41.6 36.7 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.1 9.3 69.6 47.1 39.7 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.2 15.6 70.0 42.2 38.8 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.6 6.9 9.6 67.2 44.6 38.6 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.0 15.7 67.9 40.5 37.1 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.5 11.6 67.5 45.6 40.6 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.1 10.7 75.9 51.3 42.8 4.1 6.9 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.9 10.2 66.0 43.6 37.4 4.2 7.1 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.8 6.8 13.2 67.6 44.0 39.1 5.0 7.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.4 6.0 11.4 58.7 41.8 37.1 4.4 7.6 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.8 6.4 14.5 80.1 51.9 47.3 3.2 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.4 11.1 65.1 44.7 39.2 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.0 12.3 68.8 48.2 44.0 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.3 15.1 67.4 40.9 37.7 7.4 11.7 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.4 5.0 9.8 67.0 45.2 38.8 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------