***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 18.9 17.0 114.7 67.0 54.9 7.0 12.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.2 13.2 14.4 101.3 62.3 51.5 5.8 9.6 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.4 19.1 16.0 108.0 64.6 55.2 8.3 13.3 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 22.2 28.3 19.6 119.1 69.0 57.8 11.7 18.3 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.9 20.2 17.1 104.3 63.3 54.9 9.7 15.1 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.2 18.8 104.1 62.2 53.7 8.0 12.8 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.0 14.8 107.1 65.1 54.5 5.7 9.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.7 16.7 93.4 57.5 50.9 15.6 22.9 31.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.0 17.0 16.3 98.5 60.7 54.1 7.6 12.7 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.8 18.5 17.3 95.8 59.3 53.2 9.3 14.7 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.9 16.8 97.5 59.2 52.4 8.0 13.3 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.2 16.1 97.1 58.9 51.1 8.8 14.0 20.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.2 19.9 19.2 103.5 62.6 53.0 9.1 14.7 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.5 17.8 94.8 58.4 51.4 11.2 17.0 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 21.4 23.1 19.0 130.2 72.5 60.2 7.3 12.6 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.6 20.2 18.3 106.9 63.7 55.0 8.8 14.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 6.0 12.0 13.0 91.0 58.6 48.4 5.6 9.6 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.0 18.0 95.0 58.4 52.8 8.8 13.9 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.1 14.5 98.9 61.3 51.5 6.1 10.4 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.2 18.4 92.2 56.0 50.1 7.4 12.2 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.5 17.5 16.0 104.7 63.4 55.0 7.8 12.6 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.4 13.4 88.4 58.5 49.1 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.9 14.8 95.4 58.7 50.8 8.1 12.3 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.8 16.9 96.0 59.2 53.1 8.9 14.9 22.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.7 23.5 20.3 119.1 68.9 57.7 8.2 14.0 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.0 16.0 16.6 93.5 57.1 48.6 9.0 13.7 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.5 23.0 19.1 118.0 68.4 56.5 8.2 14.0 21.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.9 22.3 19.2 127.0 71.3 59.6 7.5 12.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.2 21.5 17.9 90.1 54.7 49.8 12.3 19.2 28.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.4 15.2 108.0 65.0 53.7 5.5 9.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------