***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.04.2016.-01.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.8 12.5 87.4 57.5 48.5 2.9 5.4 8.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.5 10.9 91.9 58.7 47.5 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.2 12.4 89.9 58.5 49.0 4.0 6.5 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.1 14.1 89.6 57.6 46.7 4.0 7.2 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.6 14.0 88.1 56.4 45.6 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.0 19.5 103.6 62.2 52.6 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.9 11.0 88.0 57.5 46.4 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 9.3 16.5 17.9 92.8 58.1 47.6 9.4 13.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.5 15.0 88.5 57.2 46.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.3 18.3 92.2 57.9 47.6 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.1 14.4 89.7 56.7 45.8 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.6 15.0 88.2 56.1 46.3 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.5 17.0 90.0 56.4 49.1 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.7 18.1 101.2 62.1 51.1 4.7 7.8 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 7.7 13.4 93.6 60.3 47.9 2.6 5.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.1 15.2 90.0 56.4 46.9 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.5 93.1 58.8 47.0 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 9.8 20.2 96.6 59.8 49.5 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.6 11.4 94.2 59.6 48.7 3.0 5.1 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 10.6 21.7 104.4 62.8 50.9 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.4 13.2 87.2 57.4 47.0 3.1 5.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.5 11.8 102.7 62.5 49.6 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.0 7.1 12.2 93.5 59.1 49.1 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.6 16.6 92.8 58.8 49.4 3.3 5.9 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.5 13.9 85.2 55.3 46.6 4.1 6.5 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.4 15.4 88.6 54.8 47.5 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.0 13.3 87.2 56.8 48.0 3.2 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.4 14.5 95.1 60.1 47.9 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.5 20.9 103.4 62.7 50.9 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.4 11.4 90.1 58.1 47.8 3.0 5.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------