***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.0 -2.0 24.6 27.9 4.7 5.9 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 3.7 3.5 3.4 -2.2 21.7 24.9 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 5.8 5.5 3.8 -2.3 20.3 23.9 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 1.1 -2.2 20.8 23.3 0.5 2.0 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 2.6 2.3 2.0 -2.3 20.6 24.2 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.6 1.0 -1.1 -2.7 15.7 19.7 2.4 3.5 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.1 4.0 3.6 -2.1 24.1 27.3 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 -4.3 -5.2 -1.6 -3.3 12.6 16.4 -3.0 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 3.6 2.9 1.5 -2.9 13.8 17.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 3.5 2.8 -0.7 -3.2 12.4 16.2 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.8 1.0 -2.8 15.0 18.6 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 1.6 1.2 0.1 -2.7 16.2 19.8 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.2 0.0 -2.8 15.3 18.5 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 4.2 3.6 1.1 -3.0 13.6 17.5 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 4.4 4.3 2.6 -2.3 18.3 20.8 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 3.8 3.3 0.7 -2.7 16.1 19.3 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 4.1 4.0 3.1 -2.2 22.4 25.4 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 1.5 1.0 -1.0 -3.0 14.3 18.3 2.3 3.2 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.6 3.2 3.2 -2.5 18.8 22.1 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 84 16 0 100 -1.4 -2.1 -3.1 -3.4 13.8 17.7 -0.4 0.7 1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.5 3.0 3.1 -2.4 19.1 22.9 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.7 3.5 3.2 -2.3 20.5 23.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 3.1 2.6 2.7 -2.9 14.1 17.4 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 3.7 3.2 1.3 -2.8 15.0 18.6 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.7 3.6 3.3 -2.0 25.0 28.3 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 2.9 2.6 -0.2 -2.3 20.1 23.4 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.0 3.9 -1.8 27.3 30.5 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.8 1.5 -2.4 18.9 21.4 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 0.2 -0.9 -2.3 -3.6 10.7 15.7 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 4.1 3.9 3.6 -2.2 21.8 25.2 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------