***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.4 8.7 0.3 54.3 53.4 6.2 7.2 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.0 8.4 0.2 53.7 53.1 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.9 8.7 0.3 54.8 53.7 7.4 8.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.6 6.1 0.2 54.0 53.1 2.2 3.3 4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.7 6.3 0.3 54.8 54.0 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.2 4.4 0.5 58.1 56.4 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.1 8.4 0.2 53.8 53.3 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.2 4.5 0.6 59.7 57.6 -1.8 -0.8 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.4 56.1 55.1 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.7 5.2 0.5 58.5 56.9 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.3 5.7 0.3 55.6 54.7 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.0 5.1 0.4 57.2 55.5 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 4.5 0.3 55.5 54.2 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 7.1 7.2 6.6 0.5 57.9 55.9 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.1 7.0 0.0 50.2 50.3 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.1 5.1 0.3 55.2 54.1 5.7 6.8 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.3 8.2 0.2 53.8 53.4 5.9 7.0 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.9 4.6 0.6 60.7 58.6 3.5 4.4 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.0 8.4 0.3 54.1 53.3 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.8 2.0 2.6 0.7 60.5 58.4 0.7 1.5 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.6 7.9 0.4 55.7 54.6 5.1 6.2 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.5 8.1 0.3 55.0 54.0 5.1 6.2 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.8 6.7 8.3 0.3 55.2 54.0 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.6 6.3 0.5 58.2 56.5 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.7 7.4 0.3 54.9 53.9 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.9 4.2 0.3 55.2 53.7 4.7 5.6 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.1 8.1 0.2 53.5 53.0 5.4 6.8 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.3 6.2 0.1 52.3 51.8 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 0.7 61.2 58.9 2.4 3.5 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.2 8.5 0.2 53.7 53.0 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------