***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.7 20.2 1.6 69.2 64.1 20.2 21.4 22.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 22.9 22.9 20.1 1.7 69.9 64.3 19.7 21.2 22.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 21.6 22.6 20.3 1.6 68.5 63.4 19.6 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 15.5 15.4 17.7 1.4 66.8 62.4 12.1 13.8 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 22.8 22.7 18.3 1.4 66.6 62.6 19.8 21.2 22.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 20.9 21.0 16.4 1.7 67.8 63.6 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 22.4 22.5 20.0 1.7 70.1 64.5 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 10.2 10.1 16.9 1.5 66.3 62.7 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 22.4 22.2 18.6 1.5 67.2 63.0 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 22.2 22.1 17.6 1.6 67.2 63.2 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 22.4 22.1 18.2 1.4 65.2 61.8 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.2 17.8 1.4 64.7 61.6 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 22.4 22.1 17.1 1.4 65.4 62.2 19.2 20.7 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 22.7 22.6 18.6 1.7 68.9 64.3 19.4 20.9 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 21.4 22.2 18.4 1.2 65.2 61.3 19.6 21.0 22.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 22.8 22.6 17.7 1.4 65.4 62.0 19.7 21.2 22.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 22.1 22.3 20.0 1.8 71.6 65.2 19.0 20.4 21.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 21.9 21.7 17.2 1.7 68.0 63.9 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 22.4 22.4 20.1 1.6 69.0 63.7 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 16.6 16.6 14.7 1.7 67.7 63.9 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 22.6 22.6 19.6 1.6 68.4 63.6 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 22.8 22.9 19.9 1.8 71.1 64.8 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 22.6 22.6 20.1 1.5 67.9 63.1 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 22.1 22.1 18.6 1.6 68.1 63.6 19.1 20.6 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 22.5 22.5 18.5 1.5 68.5 63.6 19.5 20.9 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 21.4 21.1 17.0 1.4 65.0 61.9 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 22.3 22.3 19.4 1.6 69.4 64.3 19.5 20.8 22.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 21.5 22.4 17.9 1.3 65.8 61.8 19.4 21.0 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 16.8 16.7 16.3 1.7 67.8 63.9 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 22.5 22.5 20.1 1.6 69.1 63.9 19.4 20.8 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------