***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.4 7.5 10.6 70.8 50.4 46.1 4.2 7.5 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.8 10.1 83.2 56.0 50.3 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.3 7.2 9.4 66.1 47.5 43.5 4.7 7.6 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.5 9.2 49.0 35.9 34.0 6.9 11.0 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.1 7.3 10.0 59.6 43.3 40.8 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.1 3.2 8.7 48.7 31.8 29.6 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.5 10.4 87.5 57.6 51.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.8 6.7 9.8 54.4 36.3 34.5 5.9 11.2 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.6 6.3 9.8 60.4 43.6 40.7 4.3 7.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.0 6.6 10.2 54.5 37.6 35.7 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.7 5.2 9.0 55.8 39.1 36.5 4.0 7.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 4.2 9.0 58.4 39.6 37.0 3.1 6.4 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.7 4.7 10.0 57.7 40.6 37.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 9.7 13.3 71.4 49.3 44.9 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.7 3.4 6.8 42.0 36.2 32.7 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.0 5.2 9.5 58.2 41.1 38.2 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.3 7.9 10.5 92.1 59.9 52.6 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.1 6.3 12.1 62.3 42.1 39.2 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.7 9.4 9.8 77.0 53.3 48.2 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.6 6.2 13.7 71.2 45.8 42.6 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.8 7.1 10.1 63.4 45.7 42.4 4.8 8.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.5 10.2 83.6 56.6 50.4 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 9.8 8.5 10.1 73.0 51.4 46.5 4.9 8.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.1 7.5 11.5 66.1 46.0 42.3 5.2 8.3 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 9.5 8.1 12.3 70.3 49.7 46.5 5.0 8.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.0 8.7 53.5 36.4 34.1 2.5 5.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 9.8 8.5 11.9 75.4 52.2 48.3 4.4 7.9 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 3.5 4.4 7.7 43.9 33.8 31.1 4.3 7.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.0 10.7 13.6 70.6 46.3 42.5 7.0 11.9 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.3 6.3 9.8 77.0 53.1 48.0 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------