***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 7.0 14.9 11.7 84.2 57.0 42.6 7.2 12.3 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.9 11.7 9.9 74.9 53.5 40.3 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.0 18.5 12.4 89.7 58.6 42.7 10.0 15.3 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 11.9 22.2 13.7 84.0 56.6 43.3 13.2 19.4 26.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 8.6 17.3 12.7 84.8 56.0 41.7 9.5 15.0 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 8.4 14.6 13.9 82.3 53.2 42.2 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.7 11.8 9.9 74.6 53.3 40.6 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 16.1 28.8 14.7 92.3 58.6 45.0 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 6.4 14.9 12.6 83.4 55.4 40.6 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 8.6 17.2 14.4 88.7 57.4 42.8 9.2 14.5 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 7.2 16.4 14.2 92.6 58.5 45.2 7.2 12.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 7.7 15.5 12.6 87.1 56.0 43.4 8.3 13.3 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.6 17.7 13.8 87.1 56.4 44.4 9.3 15.1 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 11.3 20.0 14.2 85.2 55.9 39.4 12.4 17.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 7.5 15.4 12.3 77.2 54.9 42.6 8.0 13.6 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 7.6 17.1 13.4 86.5 55.7 43.1 8.4 14.5 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 5.6 10.6 10.0 75.4 53.6 40.9 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.9 15.4 13.7 82.8 55.2 41.3 8.5 13.6 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 13.2 10.6 80.6 55.7 40.9 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.8 14.4 16.2 90.2 57.0 43.9 8.1 12.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 7.9 15.5 12.2 84.8 56.1 40.7 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.9 12.0 11.1 82.1 56.8 42.5 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 8.1 14.8 11.6 86.5 57.2 40.2 8.7 12.7 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.5 18.1 13.2 84.4 55.8 39.9 10.1 15.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 9.3 17.2 12.7 79.2 53.5 41.2 9.7 15.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 8.2 16.2 14.3 90.8 57.9 45.5 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 7.9 16.0 12.1 81.4 55.0 42.1 8.1 13.9 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 8.0 16.3 12.7 79.8 55.2 42.0 8.7 14.2 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.4 22.5 15.4 89.7 57.3 44.0 13.0 19.3 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 6.1 11.4 10.4 77.7 54.8 40.8 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------