***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 15.7 14.9 99.6 62.8 50.5 7.1 11.5 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.5 13.1 106.0 65.6 52.5 3.6 6.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.4 14.6 103.0 63.9 52.7 6.0 10.5 16.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 18.5 16.3 98.7 62.2 51.0 9.6 14.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.8 14.3 16.2 102.1 63.1 52.2 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.5 19.0 101.1 61.6 53.3 6.1 10.0 15.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.1 11.4 13.4 106.8 65.9 51.6 4.3 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.0 24.6 18.3 111.4 66.2 55.2 11.6 17.4 24.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.6 13.7 16.5 99.9 62.2 52.8 5.4 9.7 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.2 19.2 109.0 65.3 55.1 5.8 10.8 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.2 16.2 15.8 108.7 65.7 53.8 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.8 15.1 15.5 106.8 64.9 53.9 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.4 16.8 17.5 101.6 62.4 53.0 7.4 12.3 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.8 15.2 18.0 98.0 61.8 52.9 6.3 10.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 13.8 16.8 109.7 66.5 52.9 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.5 16.1 100.6 62.5 52.1 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.3 12.3 98.4 62.9 50.9 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 16.8 19.7 104.5 63.4 54.2 6.6 11.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.3 13.8 107.5 65.9 53.9 4.7 8.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.2 19.0 100.5 61.3 51.8 6.0 10.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.3 11.9 14.5 93.9 60.1 50.3 6.1 9.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.1 13.4 100.9 63.7 52.7 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.2 12.4 14.6 107.2 65.6 55.0 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.8 16.6 17.6 101.8 63.0 53.8 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 15.2 87.6 57.2 47.1 5.1 9.2 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.6 16.5 104.3 63.4 52.4 4.3 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.9 13.7 15.4 96.3 61.0 49.0 5.5 9.8 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.7 16.3 100.5 62.8 51.0 4.7 8.2 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 20.8 20.0 105.9 64.0 54.1 9.1 14.7 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.3 14.0 108.9 66.4 52.4 5.3 8.7 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------