***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.3 5.2 13.9 84.9 55.6 41.8 2.5 4.4 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 5.7 12.4 86.9 57.1 43.6 2.7 4.6 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.8 7.1 14.7 91.4 58.7 43.1 3.2 5.5 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.6 16.0 83.6 54.8 42.7 4.5 7.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.8 6.6 15.5 83.9 55.3 42.1 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.9 18.0 85.9 54.4 45.1 4.5 7.8 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.4 12.2 85.5 56.9 44.0 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.4 14.5 17.7 87.1 55.6 44.5 8.7 12.8 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.4 6.3 16.5 86.0 56.4 42.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.9 18.9 87.5 56.0 43.9 4.1 6.8 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.3 14.7 85.3 55.8 43.1 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.1 14.6 83.7 54.5 43.1 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.1 16.7 86.2 55.0 44.2 4.7 7.9 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.1 9.3 20.3 90.1 58.2 45.9 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.6 14.6 80.7 54.6 42.8 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.5 15.6 86.0 55.6 43.8 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.9 11.8 85.7 57.2 44.7 1.9 3.8 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.7 8.4 20.2 87.2 55.5 43.9 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.7 13.5 91.2 58.7 44.6 2.8 4.6 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.2 8.2 20.3 87.4 54.9 43.5 4.2 7.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.3 5.5 15.3 86.3 56.3 41.3 2.8 4.7 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.4 6.0 13.2 88.7 58.3 45.3 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.8 15.1 94.6 60.3 45.2 3.1 5.1 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.2 18.7 90.9 58.2 45.1 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.4 15.8 84.3 54.6 42.2 3.4 5.7 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.0 14.8 80.5 53.3 43.0 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.6 14.6 85.1 55.5 42.4 3.0 4.8 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.3 15.9 83.6 55.0 42.9 2.8 5.3 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.0 13.1 20.7 88.7 56.2 44.7 6.2 10.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.0 5.1 12.9 87.1 57.1 43.4 2.3 4.1 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------