***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.04.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-02.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 31.7 40.8 51.0 84.8 44.3 42.7 33.5 44.7 57.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 25.7 34.6 45.5 87.5 47.8 44.5 25.7 36.0 47.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 33.2 44.0 51.1 87.6 46.3 43.8 34.8 46.6 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 49.4 55.0 55.2 78.0 36.7 37.1 52.5 63.5 74.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 32.2 39.7 54.4 82.3 39.9 39.6 34.3 48.0 63.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 36.2 39.0 59.5 80.1 33.3 35.0 38.8 48.6 59.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 24.4 34.3 45.9 88.3 48.4 45.2 24.4 35.3 48.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 67.7 76.0 60.5 85.3 40.7 39.7 71.0 81.9 93.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 33.7 39.9 55.3 82.7 40.5 40.0 34.9 46.4 59.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 42.7 49.9 62.7 84.2 40.4 39.8 45.0 56.1 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 33.0 40.7 53.8 84.8 41.4 40.2 35.1 46.9 60.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 39.0 45.3 51.7 83.6 40.1 39.3 41.3 51.2 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 42.2 48.2 58.0 83.1 38.4 38.4 44.7 54.9 66.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 42.0 51.7 65.7 86.3 43.4 41.7 44.2 56.7 70.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 30.2 35.1 50.5 77.1 38.6 37.5 31.5 43.0 55.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 36.6 42.6 54.6 82.8 38.8 38.5 38.8 49.9 61.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.2 35.4 44.6 87.6 48.1 45.0 26.4 36.6 48.2 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 40.2 47.2 65.8 84.2 40.0 39.6 43.0 53.4 64.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.7 39.0 47.7 89.1 48.7 45.2 28.3 40.0 53.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 36.4 43.6 69.1 86.9 41.3 39.9 38.7 48.7 59.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 29.0 34.7 52.1 82.1 40.3 39.9 30.4 40.9 53.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 25.5 36.1 47.9 88.8 48.9 45.7 25.7 37.0 50.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 29.4 39.9 51.5 90.5 49.0 45.6 30.4 40.6 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 37.8 47.0 61.0 86.0 43.1 41.6 40.4 51.9 64.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 35.5 40.9 55.9 80.4 39.0 39.4 36.7 48.6 61.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 33.6 38.6 54.3 82.1 37.5 37.3 35.7 46.1 57.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 31.4 40.5 54.0 84.6 43.7 42.5 32.6 45.5 60.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 33.5 37.7 52.7 76.6 35.7 35.9 36.0 46.2 57.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 55.9 66.7 69.7 88.4 43.8 42.2 58.1 71.8 86.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.7 34.8 47.1 87.6 47.6 44.6 26.9 36.2 46.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------