***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 3.7 3.0 2.7 -2.8 13.0 16.9 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 3.3 2.9 2.9 -2.4 15.4 18.9 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 5.5 4.7 2.7 -2.6 13.4 16.7 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 -0.9 -1.9 0.5 -2.7 13.3 16.8 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 2.5 1.7 0.9 -2.7 12.7 15.8 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.0 -1.1 -2.6 14.6 17.5 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 3.7 3.3 2.9 -2.4 15.5 18.9 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 -4.2 -5.4 -1.6 -3.2 10.3 14.0 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 3.3 2.6 1.4 -2.7 11.5 14.3 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 90 10 0 100 3.4 2.6 -0.7 -3.1 10.5 13.7 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 3.2 2.6 0.4 -2.7 12.3 15.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 87 13 0 100 1.6 0.8 -0.6 -2.9 11.8 15.2 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 2.7 2.2 -0.4 -2.7 14.2 16.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 4.2 3.8 1.5 -2.5 14.9 18.0 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 4.5 4.1 2.1 -2.4 15.6 18.8 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 91 9 0 100 3.6 3.1 0.2 -2.7 13.3 15.9 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 3.8 3.6 2.8 -2.2 17.2 20.5 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 1.5 0.7 -1.6 -3.3 10.1 13.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 84 16 0 100 3.5 3.0 2.9 -2.4 15.0 18.5 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 -1.4 -2.6 -4.3 -3.8 8.2 12.5 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 3.2 2.4 2.4 -2.7 12.4 15.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 3.5 3.3 2.9 -2.1 17.7 21.2 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 3.3 2.8 2.7 -2.4 14.4 17.8 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 3.6 3.0 1.0 -2.7 13.1 16.2 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 3.3 2.4 1.6 -2.9 12.2 16.2 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 2.7 2.1 -0.9 -2.8 13.5 16.7 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 3.4 2.3 2.1 -2.9 12.8 16.8 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 2.1 1.6 1.2 -2.5 14.9 18.0 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 0.1 -1.2 -2.4 -3.5 8.7 12.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 85 15 0 100 3.7 3.2 3.0 -2.5 14.5 18.0 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------