***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.7 5.3 6.0 -0.8 37.5 39.8 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.1 6.1 -0.4 42.8 44.0 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.7 5.8 -0.6 39.1 41.1 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 0.2 0.6 3.6 -0.9 34.0 37.7 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.4 3.8 3.5 -0.8 34.3 38.2 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.2 2.0 -0.7 36.7 39.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.3 6.1 -0.5 42.2 43.6 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 1.9 -0.9 33.3 38.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.3 4.7 4.0 -0.8 34.9 38.8 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.1 4.4 2.4 -1.0 31.9 37.1 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.4 3.1 -0.8 34.2 38.0 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.2 2.9 -0.7 35.8 39.1 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.6 4.1 2.4 -0.8 35.4 37.9 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.3 4.3 -0.5 40.3 42.4 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.1 5.5 4.1 -0.8 34.1 37.6 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.4 4.8 2.9 -0.8 34.5 37.6 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.5 6.0 -0.4 42.9 44.3 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.5 2.6 1.7 -1.0 31.7 37.0 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.2 6.0 -0.4 42.5 43.7 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -1.2 29.9 35.6 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 4.7 5.1 -0.8 35.8 39.1 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.9 6.0 -0.4 43.4 44.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.7 5.6 -0.5 41.3 42.7 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.9 -0.7 37.2 40.2 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.8 4.4 -0.8 36.4 39.1 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 3.9 2.7 -0.7 36.2 38.8 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.2 5.3 -0.7 37.9 40.1 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.4 3.8 3.8 -0.8 34.1 37.6 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 1.0 1.3 -0.9 34.2 39.0 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.4 6.1 -0.5 41.5 43.0 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------