***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.3 8.2 0.0 50.1 50.4 6.3 7.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.1 8.1 0.1 51.5 51.3 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.9 7.9 0.0 49.9 50.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.5 5.7 -0.2 46.9 48.5 2.6 3.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 5.7 -0.2 46.9 48.4 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.7 4.1 -0.1 47.8 48.8 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.2 8.1 0.1 51.9 51.4 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.1 -0.7 4.1 -0.2 45.8 47.4 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.2 6.2 -0.1 48.9 49.8 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.2 4.7 -0.2 47.1 48.4 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.8 5.2 -0.3 45.3 47.0 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 4.9 -0.3 45.1 46.9 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.7 4.5 -0.2 45.9 47.4 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.4 6.9 6.2 -0.1 48.8 49.5 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.2 6.3 0.0 49.3 50.3 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.6 5.0 -0.3 45.5 47.0 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.4 7.9 0.1 51.8 51.2 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.3 4.1 -0.1 47.4 48.5 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.9 7.9 0.1 50.9 51.0 5.7 6.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 0.7 1.4 2.4 -0.2 46.0 47.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.3 7.2 0.0 49.3 50.0 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.5 7.8 0.1 51.6 51.3 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.6 7.5 0.0 49.9 50.4 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.2 6.0 -0.1 48.6 49.5 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 6.5 -0.1 48.1 49.2 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.5 4.7 -0.3 45.1 47.0 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.0 7.4 0.0 49.8 50.3 5.6 7.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.2 6.0 -0.1 48.1 49.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.7 3.6 -0.2 47.2 48.3 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.3 8.2 0.1 51.1 51.1 6.0 7.2 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------