***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.5 9.2 -0.2 46.9 47.9 8.6 9.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.9 9.2 -0.1 48.7 49.0 7.7 9.0 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.6 9.0 -0.1 47.8 48.5 9.6 10.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.7 5.1 6.9 -0.2 45.9 47.1 4.1 5.4 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.2 6.8 -0.3 45.2 46.7 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.1 5.4 0.1 51.4 50.6 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.9 9.2 -0.1 48.5 48.8 7.8 9.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -0.5 0.9 5.3 -0.2 46.7 47.8 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 6.7 7.9 7.3 -0.2 45.8 47.3 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.8 8.0 5.8 -0.2 46.2 47.7 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.4 7.4 6.4 -0.3 44.9 46.4 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.8 5.7 6.1 -0.2 46.6 47.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.0 5.6 -0.1 47.6 47.9 6.3 7.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.7 7.4 -0.1 48.5 49.0 7.7 8.8 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.6 7.4 -0.2 46.8 47.8 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.5 6.2 -0.2 46.8 47.4 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.3 9.0 0.0 49.2 49.2 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.5 5.9 5.3 -0.1 48.2 48.9 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.9 9.1 -0.1 48.8 49.0 7.8 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.8 0.0 49.4 49.3 2.0 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.7 7.9 8.3 -0.2 46.4 47.7 7.0 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.4 8.9 -0.1 49.0 49.3 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.2 8.5 8.7 -0.1 48.7 49.1 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 6.9 8.0 7.2 -0.1 48.2 49.0 7.1 8.1 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 7.1 8.6 7.6 -0.2 46.9 48.1 7.5 8.8 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.9 5.9 -0.1 47.6 47.9 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.3 9.1 8.5 -0.2 47.2 48.3 7.8 9.3 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.7 7.2 -0.2 47.1 47.6 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.1 5.5 4.8 -0.1 49.0 49.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.0 9.3 -0.1 48.2 48.6 7.8 9.2 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------