***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.3 6.5 -0.9 26.2 30.5 6.6 7.3 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.7 5.9 6.6 -0.7 31.3 34.7 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 7.7 7.8 6.4 -0.8 27.5 31.5 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 2.0 1.9 4.2 -1.0 23.2 27.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 4.5 4.4 4.3 -1.0 22.9 27.8 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.6 3.8 2.6 -0.9 27.5 31.5 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.6 -0.7 31.1 34.6 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -1.9 -2.1 2.4 -1.1 21.1 26.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 5.3 5.3 4.7 -1.0 23.6 28.7 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 5.4 5.2 3.1 -1.1 20.8 26.3 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 5.1 5.0 3.8 -1.0 21.9 26.9 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 3.6 3.5 3.3 -1.0 22.4 27.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 4.6 4.7 3.0 -1.0 23.9 28.2 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.0 6.1 4.9 -0.8 28.2 32.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.3 5.0 -0.9 26.0 30.5 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 5.7 5.7 3.5 -1.0 23.3 27.8 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.3 6.4 6.4 -0.6 32.5 35.7 6.4 7.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.5 3.3 2.4 -1.1 20.9 26.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.8 5.9 6.5 -0.7 30.7 34.1 6.1 6.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 0.6 0.3 0.5 -1.3 19.1 25.2 1.0 1.6 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 5.2 5.3 5.8 -1.0 24.8 29.5 5.7 6.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.5 5.7 6.4 -0.6 32.8 35.8 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 5.5 5.6 6.1 -0.7 29.4 32.9 5.8 6.4 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.4 5.4 4.5 -0.9 25.9 30.4 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 5.4 5.4 5.0 -1.0 24.0 28.4 5.9 6.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 4.6 4.6 3.1 -1.0 23.8 28.3 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 5.7 5.8 5.8 -0.9 25.8 30.0 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.3 4.6 -0.9 25.0 29.6 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.2 1.8 -1.1 21.1 27.0 2.8 3.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.2 6.6 -0.8 29.9 33.5 6.3 7.1 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------