***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 13.8 13.4 12.4 -2.7 17.9 22.0 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 14.1 13.9 12.6 -2.3 20.0 23.8 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 14.4 14.0 12.4 -2.7 18.7 23.0 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 6.4 6.0 10.0 -3.1 18.1 22.5 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 14.6 13.9 10.6 -3.2 17.4 22.5 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 13.2 12.4 8.2 -3.7 16.2 22.4 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 14.0 13.8 12.5 -2.4 19.0 22.7 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 2.4 1.4 8.5 -3.6 14.9 21.6 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 14.5 13.8 11.6 -3.0 18.0 23.2 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 14.5 13.5 9.6 -3.5 16.2 22.2 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 14.5 13.7 10.3 -3.3 16.9 22.6 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 13.5 12.6 9.4 -3.5 15.8 22.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 14.4 13.5 9.3 -3.5 16.1 22.3 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 14.3 13.9 11.5 -2.6 20.1 25.1 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 14.8 14.5 11.8 -2.8 19.4 23.2 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 14.7 13.9 9.9 -3.4 16.5 22.2 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 13.5 13.4 12.4 -2.2 20.8 24.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 13.8 12.7 8.6 -3.6 14.9 21.5 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 14.1 13.8 12.7 -2.3 20.3 24.3 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 8.8 6.8 5.8 -4.3 10.4 18.4 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 14.6 14.0 12.2 -3.0 18.4 23.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 14.2 14.1 12.5 -2.1 22.4 25.9 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 14.4 14.1 12.6 -2.4 20.5 24.7 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 14.2 13.5 10.9 -3.0 18.1 23.4 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 14.4 14.0 11.1 -2.9 17.8 22.1 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 13.8 12.7 8.4 -3.6 14.4 20.9 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 14.4 13.9 11.8 -2.8 17.6 21.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 14.7 14.4 10.7 -3.1 18.7 23.1 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 8.7 7.3 7.6 -3.8 13.4 20.5 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 14.1 13.8 12.6 -2.5 19.1 23.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------