***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.2 16.6 -0.3 46.2 47.2 15.0 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.2 16.7 -0.1 48.8 48.9 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.0 16.7 -0.4 45.5 46.6 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.6 15.0 -0.6 42.8 44.9 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.0 15.2 -0.5 43.3 45.3 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.7 13.2 -0.7 41.4 43.6 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.2 16.7 0.0 49.7 49.6 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.6 13.6 -0.6 42.3 44.3 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.8 15.6 15.6 -0.5 43.8 45.6 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.5 15.5 14.3 -0.6 42.7 44.6 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.0 15.8 14.7 -0.6 42.8 44.9 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.8 14.4 -0.6 42.2 44.3 14.0 15.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.0 15.7 13.9 -0.7 41.6 43.7 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.7 15.8 15.4 -0.4 45.0 46.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.3 16.2 15.2 -0.6 42.2 44.4 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.0 14.4 -0.7 41.8 44.1 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 16.5 0.1 50.7 50.4 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 13.8 15.0 13.7 -0.7 42.3 44.1 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.6 15.9 16.7 -0.2 47.8 48.1 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.7 11.2 -0.8 40.5 42.5 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.8 16.2 -0.4 44.4 46.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.3 16.5 0.0 49.7 49.4 15.0 16.3 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.8 16.0 16.5 -0.3 46.3 47.0 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.5 15.3 -0.5 43.8 45.3 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.0 15.2 -0.4 44.9 46.4 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.2 13.6 -0.6 42.4 44.3 14.4 15.7 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.8 15.9 16.0 -0.3 46.4 47.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.0 15.1 -0.6 41.8 44.2 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.7 12.7 -0.7 42.4 44.1 8.8 10.3 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.0 16.7 -0.2 47.8 48.2 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------