***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.5 19.5 -0.3 46.6 46.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 19.5 21.1 19.4 -0.3 46.1 46.2 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 19.6 21.1 19.6 -0.2 47.1 46.9 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.1 18.1 0.0 50.4 49.4 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.5 18.2 0.0 50.0 49.2 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.0 16.6 0.4 54.6 52.7 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.7 19.4 -0.3 45.7 45.9 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.0 16.9 0.2 52.0 50.8 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.9 18.6 -0.1 49.1 48.5 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 17.5 0.0 50.5 49.6 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.1 17.9 0.1 51.4 50.3 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.3 17.7 0.2 52.5 51.2 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.2 17.2 0.3 53.3 51.8 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.0 18.4 -0.1 48.3 47.7 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 18.4 0.1 51.2 50.0 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.0 21.7 17.7 0.2 52.7 51.3 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 18.8 20.3 19.2 -0.3 45.6 45.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.4 16.9 0.0 50.5 49.5 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.2 20.7 19.5 -0.3 46.6 46.5 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 14.8 0.2 52.0 50.6 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.1 19.2 -0.2 48.0 47.7 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.9 19.2 -0.3 46.0 46.0 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 19.4 21.0 19.4 -0.2 47.1 46.8 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 19.2 20.7 18.3 -0.1 48.8 48.2 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.5 21.0 18.2 -0.2 47.7 47.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 20.6 20.3 16.9 0.3 53.3 51.8 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 19.4 20.8 18.8 -0.3 46.7 46.6 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.4 18.3 0.2 51.9 50.6 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 16.0 0.1 51.1 49.8 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.3 20.8 19.6 -0.3 46.3 46.3 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------