***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 17.4 17.7 16.7 -0.9 31.4 35.2 17.7 18.5 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.3 17.7 16.7 -0.7 34.8 37.9 17.6 18.4 19.3 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 17.2 17.6 16.8 -0.9 31.8 35.5 17.7 18.5 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 9.9 10.1 15.0 -1.0 30.2 34.4 10.3 11.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 17.4 17.7 15.3 -1.0 30.0 34.3 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 16.3 16.4 13.4 -1.0 31.1 35.4 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.1 17.4 16.7 -0.7 34.7 37.8 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.0 5.2 13.6 -1.1 29.2 33.9 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 17.0 17.3 15.8 -1.0 30.5 34.8 17.4 18.3 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 16.9 17.2 14.5 -1.1 29.4 34.0 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 17.1 17.4 14.9 -1.0 29.9 34.3 17.6 18.5 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 16.3 16.5 14.5 -1.0 30.0 34.5 16.7 17.7 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.5 14.1 -1.0 30.6 35.0 17.6 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 17.2 17.5 15.6 -0.9 32.9 36.6 17.5 18.4 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 17.5 17.7 15.6 -0.9 31.3 35.3 17.8 18.6 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 17.6 17.8 14.6 -1.0 30.3 34.7 18.0 19.0 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 16.7 17.0 16.5 -0.6 36.3 39.2 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 16.4 16.7 13.7 -1.2 29.0 33.6 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 17.0 17.4 16.8 -0.7 34.5 37.7 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 11.3 11.4 11.3 -1.3 26.3 31.8 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 17.2 17.5 16.4 -1.0 30.5 34.7 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 17.3 17.7 16.6 -0.6 36.3 39.2 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 17.2 17.6 16.7 -0.8 33.7 37.1 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 16.8 17.2 15.4 -1.0 31.1 35.2 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 17.3 17.5 15.4 -1.0 30.3 34.3 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 16.7 16.8 13.7 -1.0 30.2 34.7 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 17.2 17.4 16.1 -0.9 31.2 35.0 17.5 18.3 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 17.5 17.7 15.3 -0.9 30.9 35.0 17.9 18.7 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 11.3 11.5 12.7 -1.2 28.6 33.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 17.0 17.4 16.8 -0.8 33.7 37.0 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------