***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.4 12.4 82.1 51.6 46.2 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.3 7.2 9.5 71.3 46.6 41.7 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.8 9.2 12.3 83.0 51.7 46.3 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.5 10.4 13.8 78.9 49.6 45.1 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.0 10.4 14.8 85.2 51.6 46.1 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.3 16.5 86.7 52.8 47.3 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.0 5.8 9.8 74.8 48.7 43.8 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.2 16.9 15.5 91.1 55.1 48.0 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.4 14.7 86.7 51.7 45.8 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.0 16.4 90.7 54.1 47.5 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.4 14.0 85.5 51.8 45.3 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.5 13.4 88.2 54.3 47.5 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.6 9.9 15.6 87.8 53.6 48.1 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.6 10.0 13.8 77.6 47.2 42.2 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 5.4 12.1 72.5 48.3 42.9 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.5 14.6 85.1 52.3 46.4 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.6 5.9 8.8 69.4 46.5 41.7 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.8 17.5 91.3 54.2 47.6 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.4 9.3 10.1 72.2 46.6 41.5 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.6 18.4 95.7 56.7 49.8 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.6 13.7 86.1 53.1 47.1 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.2 7.3 8.9 66.3 44.9 39.7 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.6 8.3 11.2 74.5 46.8 41.8 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 9.7 14.8 83.5 50.3 44.6 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.5 10.1 15.3 86.3 52.5 47.3 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.5 9.8 14.4 89.3 55.4 50.3 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.0 14.3 86.3 53.2 47.7 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.0 8.5 13.3 77.4 49.9 44.6 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.5 16.2 17.9 92.1 54.9 48.0 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.9 6.4 10.4 75.0 47.9 42.9 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------