***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.3 12.1 10.5 86.5 54.8 43.1 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 5.4 8.6 10.3 78.1 51.4 41.6 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.9 16.3 11.0 91.7 57.2 45.4 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.7 23.6 13.2 100.8 62.2 48.6 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.7 20.7 13.4 107.0 64.9 51.0 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.1 16.4 17.6 100.5 61.3 52.1 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.9 8.8 10.2 77.9 50.9 41.0 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 27.5 30.4 14.2 105.2 63.4 50.9 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.8 19.2 13.7 108.9 65.7 52.1 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 21.3 14.9 107.6 64.5 51.2 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.1 22.0 12.9 114.1 67.4 51.3 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.2 19.0 12.3 110.0 65.9 52.2 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.7 21.2 14.8 106.2 63.7 52.1 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.9 18.9 14.1 91.4 57.8 45.9 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 16.7 13.0 97.5 61.5 47.7 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.7 20.0 13.5 105.3 63.7 50.6 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.4 10.3 76.3 52.0 41.6 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 17.9 16.5 101.7 61.9 50.2 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.7 9.6 10.5 80.4 52.7 42.6 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 14.0 17.2 92.8 57.3 48.2 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.6 18.7 12.3 104.9 64.1 50.3 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.9 11.0 83.2 55.5 44.7 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.7 11.3 10.8 82.8 54.0 43.0 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 10.0 19.5 14.2 97.8 60.3 47.9 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.9 17.2 13.2 95.4 58.9 47.3 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.1 17.0 14.2 110.8 65.7 53.4 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.9 14.0 12.1 87.6 55.1 44.8 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.4 16.4 13.1 99.6 62.3 48.4 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 24.8 17.1 99.5 61.3 50.4 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.1 8.9 10.3 80.4 51.5 41.8 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------