***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 6.0 17.1 13.9 112.7 67.2 52.2 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.8 14.8 115.1 68.1 52.2 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.0 16.8 14.5 118.2 68.9 53.6 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.0 19.2 16.7 120.0 69.6 55.6 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.9 14.2 15.6 115.4 68.0 54.7 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.5 20.7 103.7 63.4 53.3 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.7 12.0 14.9 110.7 66.5 51.6 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.0 22.0 16.1 109.4 65.2 54.3 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 12.6 14.8 110.7 66.5 53.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.2 15.9 16.8 110.9 66.0 54.3 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.2 14.1 112.3 66.7 54.5 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.8 13.1 13.3 107.3 64.9 53.5 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.3 16.8 107.5 64.5 53.9 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.3 15.0 16.5 109.2 65.9 52.2 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 13.5 15.4 116.4 68.7 53.2 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.2 15.5 109.1 65.4 54.1 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.8 15.0 14.7 116.9 68.6 51.1 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 18.1 18.6 108.5 64.9 53.2 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.2 15.6 14.5 119.2 69.5 52.7 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.8 15.1 20.6 113.1 66.5 55.9 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.7 11.7 13.7 113.5 67.5 53.6 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.3 14.1 14.5 124.4 71.1 52.6 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.0 14.4 119.1 69.4 52.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.3 15.6 16.6 110.7 66.0 52.6 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.3 16.0 17.5 122.4 70.3 56.3 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.3 14.6 98.4 60.8 51.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.9 16.5 16.6 117.4 68.6 54.1 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.8 15.9 114.4 67.9 54.1 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.3 21.4 19.0 109.2 65.5 53.9 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.6 13.7 14.6 114.2 67.6 52.5 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------