***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 7.2 12.2 126.2 71.6 54.0 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.2 7.8 12.8 127.8 72.0 58.1 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.7 12.5 123.0 70.6 56.5 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.4 12.4 91.4 59.4 48.6 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.9 7.7 12.7 99.1 62.3 50.2 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.9 14.2 79.3 52.4 44.4 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.4 8.4 12.7 131.9 73.2 57.6 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.2 13.5 12.6 87.1 57.0 47.1 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.7 12.9 107.6 65.5 52.4 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.1 13.5 95.9 60.5 49.7 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.3 11.1 88.9 58.7 47.7 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 10.6 85.4 57.3 46.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.0 12.2 83.8 55.3 46.3 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.6 12.7 15.0 110.5 66.5 54.2 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.8 9.9 74.7 53.2 43.7 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.7 85.6 56.9 47.1 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.8 11.6 112.1 67.4 54.1 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.0 15.7 99.0 61.8 51.7 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.3 7.5 12.7 126.0 71.5 58.0 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.9 16.6 90.1 57.2 48.5 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.7 7.9 11.8 115.3 68.4 53.4 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.7 6.7 11.2 104.7 64.4 52.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 8.8 9.0 12.8 124.2 71.1 57.3 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.1 14.5 109.3 66.0 54.0 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.4 14.1 111.0 66.5 52.8 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.9 10.2 71.8 49.7 41.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 7.4 14.2 121.2 69.8 53.6 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 6.6 11.1 80.9 55.5 45.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 13.4 16.3 96.8 60.9 51.1 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.2 6.6 13.0 132.2 73.3 58.4 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------