***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-03.05.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 47.4 47.2 49.0 99.5 55.9 51.8 31.7 42.9 55.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 39.9 36.9 47.4 95.9 53.4 49.8 24.3 34.6 46.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 52.1 52.4 50.3 102.1 57.8 53.9 34.4 46.4 59.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 67.1 65.1 56.1 96.6 53.7 49.9 53.4 63.0 72.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 55.0 53.8 56.5 100.4 56.4 52.2 36.0 48.8 62.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 53.0 47.6 69.0 92.7 48.3 45.3 39.4 48.6 58.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 38.9 36.5 47.7 96.6 54.0 50.4 22.9 33.6 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 87.8 84.3 58.4 97.7 53.0 48.9 71.3 82.3 93.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 51.7 51.8 56.1 102.2 57.9 53.4 35.0 46.2 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 60.9 59.8 61.7 100.6 55.9 51.6 45.0 55.8 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 36.9 52.0 52.2 98.8 54.7 50.3 37.3 48.5 61.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 56.2 52.7 49.6 96.9 52.9 48.8 41.1 51.0 61.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 60.1 56.2 59.4 96.0 51.6 47.9 45.3 55.2 66.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 43.1 57.6 59.4 95.9 51.6 48.4 43.8 56.5 70.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 48.2 42.1 50.5 89.2 49.0 45.8 32.1 42.8 54.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 55.8 51.9 55.2 95.6 51.9 48.2 39.9 50.5 62.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 40.4 35.3 45.4 92.4 51.2 47.6 24.2 34.6 46.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 60.2 58.2 68.3 99.7 54.8 50.4 44.7 55.0 66.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 45.4 41.8 47.8 97.0 53.9 50.3 26.3 38.6 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 54.2 50.7 72.8 97.8 52.4 48.7 39.0 49.0 59.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 45.7 46.9 51.5 103.1 58.7 54.1 31.0 41.2 52.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 43.2 37.5 45.6 93.1 51.2 47.6 25.8 36.6 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 28.5 41.9 49.2 97.4 53.7 50.2 28.9 39.4 51.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 58.9 56.2 60.2 99.3 54.7 50.7 41.3 52.9 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 51.9 53.3 60.1 102.6 58.1 53.9 35.5 47.1 60.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 51.2 44.6 53.4 92.1 47.8 45.3 35.7 45.9 57.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 50.2 51.1 57.2 101.6 57.4 53.3 31.9 44.8 59.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 50.5 46.0 53.2 92.1 50.5 47.1 35.3 45.6 56.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 78.9 75.5 70.2 99.1 54.2 49.9 58.5 72.1 86.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 39.2 37.9 48.3 98.0 54.8 51.2 26.4 35.2 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------