***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 6.2 5.1 4.8 -0.9 37.7 38.5 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 5.6 5.0 4.8 -0.5 42.3 42.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 8.1 7.1 5.1 -0.6 40.6 41.1 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 2.2 1.2 2.4 -0.6 41.9 42.6 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.0 3.6 2.9 -1.1 34.7 35.6 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.3 2.4 0.0 -1.3 30.8 32.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 6.0 5.2 4.7 -0.6 41.3 41.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.2 -2.6 0.4 -0.9 36.8 37.5 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.7 3.8 2.5 -1.7 24.8 26.1 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 4.5 1.2 -1.2 33.4 34.3 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.7 3.8 2.0 -1.6 26.3 27.6 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 2.7 1.2 -1.3 32.0 32.9 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 2.7 2.4 0.2 -2.5 16.0 17.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.7 4.7 2.2 -1.6 26.4 27.8 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 4.4 4.5 2.7 -2.0 20.4 21.9 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 4.2 4.3 1.4 -1.7 25.8 27.3 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 6.0 5.4 4.6 -0.4 43.9 44.2 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 2.7 0.8 -0.9 37.1 37.8 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 5.7 5.2 4.9 -0.4 43.7 44.2 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 1.1 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 41.7 42.0 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.9 3.7 -1.6 27.5 28.6 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 5.4 4.9 4.8 -0.4 44.3 44.7 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 5.4 4.8 4.8 -0.4 43.3 43.8 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.5 2.7 -1.2 32.7 33.7 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 5.9 4.7 4.0 -0.9 37.6 38.4 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.8 3.0 -0.3 -2.0 23.1 24.5 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 6.6 5.0 4.3 -1.0 37.0 37.8 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.2 -1.4 30.2 31.4 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.9 1.8 0.2 -0.7 39.8 40.2 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 6.2 5.5 5.1 -0.4 43.6 44.1 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------