***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.1 7.9 0.9 62.6 60.1 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.4 7.5 0.8 62.5 59.7 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.7 8.4 7.9 0.9 63.2 60.4 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.1 2.6 5.1 0.8 62.2 59.5 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.3 5.7 5.7 0.8 61.1 59.1 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.7 3.3 0.8 61.4 59.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.7 7.6 0.9 63.4 60.5 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.2 3.2 0.7 60.7 59.3 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.3 5.7 0.7 61.0 59.3 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.2 4.0 0.7 60.5 59.2 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.1 5.0 0.7 60.4 58.6 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.5 4.8 4.2 0.7 61.0 59.2 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.5 4.0 0.6 59.0 57.6 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.6 5.6 0.8 62.8 60.6 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.3 6.9 6.3 0.7 61.7 59.4 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.4 4.6 0.7 60.3 58.5 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.8 7.3 0.9 63.6 60.5 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.8 4.4 3.6 0.8 62.0 60.5 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.4 7.4 0.8 62.2 59.4 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.1 1.7 1.8 0.8 61.6 60.4 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.4 7.0 0.8 61.5 59.5 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.1 7.3 0.9 64.4 60.9 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.0 7.3 0.8 62.0 59.4 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.1 5.6 0.9 63.0 60.9 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 7.1 6.5 6.8 0.8 61.2 59.2 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.3 3.6 0.7 60.2 58.4 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.8 7.1 7.4 0.9 62.2 59.9 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.5 5.4 0.8 62.1 59.6 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.3 2.8 2.9 0.8 62.0 60.7 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.7 7.7 0.9 62.8 60.0 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------