***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 8.6 8.0 8.8 0.8 62.2 60.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 8.5 7.9 8.5 0.9 63.2 61.4 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 10.4 9.8 8.8 0.8 63.6 61.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 5.1 4.4 6.0 0.6 59.7 58.6 2.6 3.7 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 6.8 6.1 6.2 0.6 60.0 58.8 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.0 5.4 4.3 0.7 60.6 59.1 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 8.5 7.9 8.5 0.9 63.0 61.5 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.6 0.1 4.3 0.6 59.9 58.4 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 7.5 6.9 6.5 0.7 61.3 59.5 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.0 5.0 0.6 61.0 59.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.2 6.6 5.7 0.6 61.0 59.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.2 5.0 0.6 60.4 58.5 3.8 4.7 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.3 4.4 0.5 58.1 57.0 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 8.2 7.7 6.5 0.7 62.3 60.5 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 8.2 7.8 7.2 0.7 61.7 59.7 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 8.1 7.5 5.1 0.6 59.8 58.1 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 8.6 8.1 8.4 0.9 63.3 61.7 6.1 7.3 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 5.5 5.0 4.4 0.7 62.2 60.0 3.6 4.5 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 8.2 7.8 8.5 0.9 63.7 61.7 5.7 6.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.6 2.0 2.3 0.5 58.6 57.7 0.8 1.6 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 7.7 7.1 7.9 0.7 61.5 59.8 5.2 6.3 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.3 8.2 0.9 64.5 62.4 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 8.0 7.5 8.4 0.8 64.1 61.8 5.6 6.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 7.5 7.1 6.3 0.8 64.1 61.5 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 7.9 7.3 7.4 0.7 61.2 59.8 5.4 6.5 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.8 6.1 4.1 0.5 57.8 57.1 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.0 8.2 0.8 61.9 60.3 5.6 7.0 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 6.4 5.9 6.3 0.6 60.2 58.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.1 4.6 3.8 0.7 61.2 59.6 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 8.7 8.1 8.7 0.9 63.3 61.5 6.0 7.2 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------