***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.5 7.6 7.9 0.4 59.5 58.2 6.6 7.3 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 7.7 0.6 62.5 60.4 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.2 8.0 0.5 61.4 59.5 8.0 8.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.5 3.6 5.2 0.4 59.4 57.4 2.4 3.2 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.9 5.6 0.3 55.7 55.0 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.8 3.3 0.2 54.6 53.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.4 7.7 0.6 62.6 60.6 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -0.5 3.3 0.3 56.4 55.7 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 5.6 0.1 52.6 52.8 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.6 6.6 4.1 0.2 55.6 55.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.2 4.9 0.1 52.0 52.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.8 4.1 0.2 54.4 53.8 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.5 3.5 -0.2 44.4 45.8 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.1 5.5 0.2 55.0 54.6 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.2 6.2 0.1 51.7 51.6 6.6 7.1 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 4.3 0.0 51.0 50.9 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.6 7.5 0.6 63.7 61.5 6.4 7.1 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.7 3.6 0.4 58.4 57.3 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.0 7.3 7.7 0.6 62.7 60.5 6.1 6.8 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.4 58.4 57.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.6 7.0 0.2 54.2 53.9 5.7 6.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.9 7.4 0.6 64.5 62.0 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.9 7.5 0.5 62.2 60.2 5.8 6.4 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.6 5.5 0.4 58.4 57.3 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.9 7.0 6.7 0.4 57.8 56.9 5.9 6.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.5 3.2 -0.1 47.9 48.7 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.6 7.4 0.4 58.8 57.6 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.5 5.4 0.2 55.0 53.9 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.9 3.0 0.4 59.0 57.9 2.8 3.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.6 7.9 0.6 62.9 60.7 6.3 7.1 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------