***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 19.1 20.2 18.1 3.7 85.3 83.6 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 19.2 20.3 18.2 3.7 85.2 83.6 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 19.5 20.4 17.9 3.4 82.0 80.5 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 13.0 13.3 13.8 2.6 76.2 74.9 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 20.3 20.6 15.4 2.8 76.8 75.7 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 19.0 18.9 12.6 1.9 68.8 68.0 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 6 94 100 19.0 20.0 18.0 3.7 85.1 83.4 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 7.6 7.7 13.3 2.5 74.1 73.0 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 19.8 20.2 16.5 2.9 77.8 76.5 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 19.9 20.1 14.5 2.7 75.2 74.1 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 20.1 20.1 15.5 2.4 73.5 72.5 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 19.3 19.4 14.2 2.4 74.0 72.9 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 20.2 20.3 15.0 2.3 73.0 72.0 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 19.6 20.4 17.1 3.6 82.6 81.2 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 19.8 20.2 16.5 2.5 77.1 75.6 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 20.5 20.6 14.8 2.3 73.0 72.0 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 18.2 19.3 17.9 3.8 85.8 84.1 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 19.3 19.7 14.1 3.1 77.1 76.0 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 19.1 20.1 18.1 3.6 84.0 82.4 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 14.4 14.9 12.2 3.3 79.2 77.9 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 19.6 20.2 17.4 3.1 79.3 78.0 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 19.1 20.2 18.0 3.8 86.1 84.5 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 19.3 20.2 18.0 3.4 82.3 80.9 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 19.3 19.9 16.6 3.3 79.5 78.3 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 19.5 20.3 16.6 3.3 81.8 80.4 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 19.5 19.8 13.6 2.6 75.9 74.7 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 19.6 20.7 17.6 3.7 85.0 83.4 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 20.3 20.4 14.6 2.3 73.7 72.5 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 14.4 14.8 13.8 3.4 79.2 78.0 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 19.1 20.2 18.2 3.7 85.0 83.3 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------