***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 19.7 20.1 18.3 1.0 61.4 59.8 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.8 20.2 18.1 0.9 60.6 59.0 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 19.8 20.1 18.4 0.8 59.3 57.9 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 15.7 0.6 56.9 56.5 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.0 16.3 0.5 55.2 55.0 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.1 14.0 0.2 52.3 52.6 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.7 18.1 0.9 60.9 59.3 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.3 14.6 0.2 51.7 52.0 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.4 16.6 0.5 55.4 55.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.3 15.4 0.3 53.2 53.2 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 19.7 19.5 16.1 0.3 53.5 53.5 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.6 15.7 0.3 52.7 52.7 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 19.8 19.4 14.8 0.2 52.6 52.7 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.7 16.4 0.3 53.4 53.4 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 19.4 19.6 16.6 0.7 58.8 57.8 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.0 15.6 0.4 53.9 53.8 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.3 17.9 0.9 60.0 58.4 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 19.2 18.9 14.9 0.2 52.5 52.6 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.9 18.2 0.8 59.5 58.1 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.8 12.1 0.1 51.0 51.5 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.8 17.6 0.6 57.0 56.3 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.2 17.8 0.7 58.7 57.3 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.1 18.1 0.7 57.4 56.4 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.4 16.4 0.4 54.7 54.3 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.7 20.0 16.5 0.9 59.9 58.9 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 19.1 18.7 14.8 0.3 52.9 53.0 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 19.5 20.0 17.5 1.0 61.8 60.2 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.6 15.9 0.6 56.4 56.0 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.8 13.8 0.1 51.2 51.7 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 19.5 20.0 18.2 1.0 61.1 59.4 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------