***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 23.0 23.3 20.4 1.9 70.9 65.2 20.5 21.7 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 23.0 23.4 20.4 2.0 72.4 66.7 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 22.9 23.2 20.7 1.9 70.8 65.4 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.6 17.9 1.4 65.9 61.1 12.4 14.0 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.7 18.4 1.3 64.2 60.1 20.0 21.5 22.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.6 16.1 1.0 60.6 56.8 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 22.5 22.9 20.2 1.9 71.4 65.9 19.6 21.0 22.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.9 16.7 1.1 61.4 58.1 7.2 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 21.6 22.3 18.9 1.5 66.0 61.5 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 22.0 17.6 1.4 64.2 60.1 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 21.6 22.1 18.2 1.1 62.2 58.5 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 20.7 21.0 17.7 1.0 60.5 57.4 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.8 16.8 0.9 59.4 56.5 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 22.8 22.9 18.9 1.8 69.2 64.7 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 21.7 22.8 19.0 1.6 68.7 62.8 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.5 17.6 1.1 61.4 57.7 19.9 21.4 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 22.2 22.6 20.1 2.0 71.9 66.5 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 22.0 21.7 17.2 1.5 65.3 61.2 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 22.6 23.0 20.5 2.0 72.2 66.7 19.5 21.0 22.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.3 14.4 1.2 62.3 59.3 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.8 19.8 1.6 67.4 62.6 19.8 21.3 22.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 23.0 23.3 20.1 2.1 72.8 67.6 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 22.9 23.2 20.6 2.0 71.4 66.2 19.8 21.3 22.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.3 22.3 18.8 1.8 68.6 63.8 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 21.7 22.7 18.6 1.6 68.3 63.2 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.8 16.7 0.9 59.0 56.4 18.5 20.0 21.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 22.5 22.7 19.6 1.8 70.4 64.8 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 21.8 22.7 18.2 1.4 65.7 60.6 19.7 21.3 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.5 16.2 1.4 63.9 60.4 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 22.7 23.1 20.4 2.0 72.1 66.4 19.7 21.1 22.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------