***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 2.6 0.8 1.5 11.0 5.9 6.7 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 2.4 0.9 1.5 13.3 9.9 9.4 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 2.8 1.1 1.6 12.1 8.1 7.9 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 2.8 0.7 2.0 12.7 5.3 6.9 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 2.7 0.5 2.1 12.9 4.6 6.7 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 1.3 0.2 1.8 10.5 2.8 4.6 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 1.5 0.3 1.3 12.4 8.7 8.4 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 4.5 0.9 2.9 16.0 4.0 6.7 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 2.5 0.6 2.3 15.1 5.7 8.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 92 8 0 100 4.6 1.4 3.0 16.8 5.1 7.7 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 2.3 0.3 2.1 12.8 4.3 6.4 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 1.6 0.2 2.1 13.4 3.7 6.1 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 1.8 0.1 1.6 8.8 1.8 3.7 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 3.1 1.6 2.9 17.8 11.5 10.8 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 1.4 0.5 1.7 12.3 9.8 8.6 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 2.6 0.4 1.8 11.1 3.1 5.3 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 2.0 0.9 1.5 15.3 10.9 10.1 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 4.0 1.5 3.0 16.9 5.3 7.8 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 3.3 1.3 1.6 13.5 10.2 9.5 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 2.6 0.4 2.8 15.0 3.2 5.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 2.4 0.7 1.9 13.5 6.2 7.6 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 2.6 1.3 1.5 14.5 11.7 10.3 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 2.8 1.5 1.8 14.8 11.4 10.0 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 92 8 0 100 3.3 1.4 2.5 15.5 7.7 8.7 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 2.9 0.8 1.7 10.6 4.1 5.8 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 1.7 0.2 1.8 11.5 3.3 5.0 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 2.1 0.4 1.5 10.3 4.9 6.0 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 2.3 0.6 2.0 12.7 6.8 7.5 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 5.1 1.8 2.9 15.9 4.8 7.2 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 2.0 0.7 1.5 12.6 9.4 9.0 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------