***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.1 14.6 14.5 98.8 61.8 46.9 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 10.7 12.6 95.4 60.3 46.4 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.9 17.3 13.9 93.8 59.8 47.1 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 12.3 21.9 15.2 90.1 58.7 46.7 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.3 17.5 14.8 91.0 58.7 46.7 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.6 15.3 15.7 93.1 58.3 48.9 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.7 12.7 94.3 59.8 46.0 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.2 27.7 15.5 91.8 58.6 49.8 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.2 15.2 14.9 89.3 57.6 47.0 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 19.0 16.5 94.0 59.7 50.1 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 7.7 16.4 14.6 89.0 57.0 47.0 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.2 13.3 86.2 55.9 46.8 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.3 18.4 14.4 88.6 57.3 47.9 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.9 20.9 18.6 102.5 62.8 50.6 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 7.4 15.2 13.5 86.4 58.0 45.8 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 8.0 16.3 14.4 88.6 56.7 46.6 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.0 11.9 90.6 58.3 45.0 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.1 17.7 17.7 97.9 61.4 51.5 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.8 11.6 13.0 96.7 60.6 47.4 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.2 17.7 93.8 58.0 48.6 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.5 16.1 14.3 89.3 57.6 46.0 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 11.7 12.8 97.9 61.0 47.5 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.7 13.3 14.2 98.0 61.1 49.2 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.5 20.1 16.9 98.6 61.7 49.9 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.6 17.0 15.6 90.8 58.6 46.0 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.3 12.8 13.3 83.7 54.5 45.2 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.4 15.3 95.5 60.5 46.2 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.6 15.4 14.5 91.6 59.7 47.9 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.3 24.3 18.1 96.7 60.2 49.9 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.4 13.3 97.4 61.2 47.1 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------