***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.8 16.1 15.6 106.0 65.0 52.7 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 14.7 13.1 14.4 117.5 68.7 53.1 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.1 14.3 14.8 103.0 63.9 51.9 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 15.1 17.5 18.0 108.1 65.6 54.6 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 12.4 16.4 101.8 63.2 52.1 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.7 20.7 113.2 66.8 56.1 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 14.0 12.9 14.7 117.5 68.8 53.2 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.5 21.8 18.1 106.9 64.7 55.1 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.0 16.3 98.0 61.7 50.7 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.1 15.0 18.9 104.7 63.8 53.3 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.4 16.3 105.3 64.4 53.1 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 13.1 16.1 107.0 65.0 54.7 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 15.7 19.6 115.9 67.9 56.6 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.1 14.6 19.2 107.5 65.1 53.6 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.9 16.1 103.1 64.6 52.0 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.8 18.0 112.2 66.7 55.1 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.5 15.5 14.4 119.9 69.6 52.2 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.0 17.8 19.9 106.7 64.3 54.8 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 14.3 14.2 112.6 67.0 52.5 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.9 14.1 20.1 106.6 64.0 56.2 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.8 16.0 103.1 64.1 52.0 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 13.5 15.0 119.5 69.4 52.2 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.2 14.3 105.0 64.4 51.4 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.3 14.5 17.7 104.6 63.9 52.5 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.3 13.9 17.6 107.0 65.2 53.4 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.7 12.6 17.5 111.9 66.9 57.1 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.3 16.2 103.9 64.1 52.2 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.9 11.8 17.4 106.4 65.2 53.8 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 17.5 21.5 20.7 111.0 65.9 56.9 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.3 13.7 14.8 114.4 67.7 53.1 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------