***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.9 11.3 74.6 52.3 41.0 2.0 3.6 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.9 3.6 8.9 63.9 47.4 37.3 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.9 5.1 10.0 67.2 48.5 38.7 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.5 13.3 80.2 55.7 45.3 4.9 8.2 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.1 12.4 77.4 53.8 43.8 3.0 5.3 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.0 15.1 86.8 56.8 46.4 3.2 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.0 3.8 9.1 65.1 47.6 38.1 2.2 4.1 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.2 12.4 13.6 79.3 53.4 44.1 6.9 11.3 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.6 12.3 72.9 51.4 42.0 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.8 6.4 13.9 75.5 51.8 42.6 3.5 6.1 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.4 11.9 79.0 54.7 43.8 2.1 4.6 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.0 12.0 81.1 55.1 44.6 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.5 8.4 13.2 78.0 53.5 43.7 4.5 7.6 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.6 8.0 13.8 68.7 48.0 38.9 5.2 8.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.5 6.9 11.2 73.5 53.7 41.7 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.6 12.5 79.5 54.7 44.2 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 1.5 3.6 9.4 68.1 49.5 37.7 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.2 7.3 14.7 75.5 51.2 42.7 4.0 7.1 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.3 3.9 9.0 62.4 46.5 36.5 2.6 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.9 15.5 79.6 52.8 45.2 4.4 7.4 11.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.1 11.9 75.7 52.9 43.5 2.6 4.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.8 4.1 10.3 68.7 50.3 38.2 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.8 9.5 62.2 46.5 36.9 3.2 5.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.9 12.2 67.7 47.7 39.5 3.5 6.4 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.1 13.8 81.5 55.6 45.2 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.1 12.5 80.0 55.1 44.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.6 12.3 76.2 53.1 42.4 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.4 12.4 77.7 54.8 43.7 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.7 9.9 14.6 76.1 51.0 42.6 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.5 2.8 9.0 63.0 47.0 37.3 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------