***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 28.7 32.3 42.9 73.5 33.9 34.5 31.7 42.9 55.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 21.9 26.0 37.4 74.1 35.8 35.1 24.3 34.6 46.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 31.0 33.7 40.3 70.5 32.1 32.4 34.4 46.4 59.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 50.6 54.6 48.6 73.4 35.2 35.0 53.4 63.0 72.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 31.7 34.8 45.7 71.0 31.2 32.2 36.0 48.8 62.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 36.5 40.2 53.3 76.7 34.4 35.0 39.4 48.6 58.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 19.6 24.8 37.8 74.5 36.4 35.4 22.9 33.6 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 66.2 69.7 50.0 72.9 30.6 32.4 71.3 82.3 93.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 30.1 33.1 45.7 70.2 30.1 31.5 35.0 46.2 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 40.2 43.8 52.2 72.9 31.1 32.8 45.0 55.8 67.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 32.6 35.7 44.9 71.3 30.7 32.4 37.3 48.5 61.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 36.8 39.7 43.5 71.4 30.4 31.8 41.1 51.0 61.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 42.1 43.1 48.8 71.4 29.0 31.1 45.3 55.2 66.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 39.3 45.4 54.5 75.1 35.3 34.5 43.8 56.5 70.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 29.8 34.1 42.4 70.7 36.3 34.6 32.1 42.8 54.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 37.0 39.1 46.7 72.5 31.5 32.5 39.9 50.5 62.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 22.7 27.4 37.2 76.0 38.7 36.9 24.2 34.6 46.8 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 41.4 44.7 55.2 74.8 32.8 33.7 44.7 55.0 66.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 23.5 27.3 37.8 72.7 34.6 34.1 26.3 38.6 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 35.3 37.9 56.1 74.0 30.8 32.3 39.0 49.0 59.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 28.5 31.0 44.2 71.7 32.7 33.1 31.0 41.2 52.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 23.3 29.6 39.7 77.4 39.3 37.5 25.8 36.6 49.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 25.0 29.6 39.7 71.5 33.9 33.0 28.9 39.4 51.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 37.9 41.3 49.4 72.6 32.9 33.2 41.3 52.9 65.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 33.2 36.2 48.7 72.9 33.9 34.8 35.5 47.1 60.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 33.1 34.9 45.0 71.8 31.6 32.6 35.7 45.9 57.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 29.3 32.2 45.4 72.6 33.3 34.3 31.9 44.8 59.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 33.0 36.8 46.2 72.9 35.4 34.5 35.3 45.6 56.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 54.1 58.5 56.3 75.6 32.9 33.8 58.5 72.1 86.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 23.5 27.1 38.6 73.5 34.6 34.3 26.4 35.2 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------