***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 6.1 7.0 6.8 1.3 68.4 66.4 4.8 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.2 7.0 1.8 75.2 72.1 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 8.7 9.0 6.7 1.4 70.0 67.7 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 3.0 3.2 4.2 1.2 67.6 65.6 0.3 1.7 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.1 4.9 1.4 70.8 68.6 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 5.0 5.4 3.2 1.8 75.3 73.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 7.2 7.7 7.1 1.9 76.9 73.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -0.3 -0.2 2.9 1.4 70.0 68.4 -3.0 -1.7 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.7 5.4 1.4 72.6 70.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.5 3.7 1.3 69.6 67.7 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.3 4.3 1.2 68.6 66.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.2 3.5 1.2 68.7 67.0 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.6 3.8 1.7 74.8 72.5 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.0 7.2 5.5 1.6 73.7 71.2 5.1 6.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 6.4 7.0 5.3 1.0 65.9 64.1 5.2 6.2 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.5 4.2 1.5 73.0 70.6 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 7.0 7.6 6.9 2.0 78.5 74.7 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.5 3.0 1.4 70.1 68.3 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.2 6.8 1.7 74.1 71.2 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.8 72.8 71.6 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 6.6 6.8 6.3 1.3 69.8 67.6 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.3 6.7 6.8 1.9 77.1 73.6 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.7 6.5 1.6 74.0 71.4 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.4 5.0 1.4 71.5 69.2 4.4 5.3 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 5.9 6.7 5.5 1.1 65.4 63.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.2 3.7 1.9 75.0 72.7 3.6 4.6 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 6.5 7.5 6.2 1.2 67.1 65.3 4.8 6.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.2 68.9 66.8 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 3.7 3.9 2.6 1.6 72.8 71.0 1.2 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 7.3 7.6 7.1 1.6 73.4 70.7 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------