***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.2 8.6 0.6 59.0 55.3 6.7 7.7 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.1 8.6 0.7 60.9 56.9 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.9 8.4 0.6 60.0 56.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.4 6.0 0.3 55.2 53.1 2.8 4.0 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.4 6.2 0.5 58.4 55.2 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.5 4.5 0.4 57.9 55.1 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.1 8.6 0.7 61.0 57.0 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.2 0.4 4.6 0.5 59.0 56.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.4 7.0 6.7 0.5 59.6 55.9 5.6 6.5 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 5.2 0.5 59.2 56.1 5.8 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.8 5.8 0.5 60.1 56.6 5.4 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.4 5.4 0.5 59.9 56.6 4.1 4.9 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 4.9 0.4 58.3 55.4 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 6.7 0.6 60.1 56.4 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.6 6.4 0.2 53.6 51.9 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 5.5 0.5 58.7 55.4 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.2 8.4 0.6 59.7 56.1 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.2 4.5 0.5 58.9 56.1 4.0 4.8 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.0 8.5 0.7 61.2 57.1 6.2 7.3 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.2 2.8 0.5 57.5 55.4 1.1 1.8 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.2 7.7 0.5 58.9 55.3 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.4 8.3 0.6 60.0 56.4 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.7 8.2 0.7 61.5 57.3 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.1 6.5 0.6 59.8 56.2 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.6 7.4 6.8 0.4 56.3 53.9 5.8 7.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.4 5.1 0.4 56.5 54.7 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.8 8.1 7.8 0.5 58.0 54.9 6.0 7.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.8 6.2 0.3 55.4 53.1 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.9 4.0 0.6 59.7 56.9 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.3 8.7 0.7 60.8 56.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------