***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 10.4 0.4 56.8 55.9 8.7 9.8 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.7 10.3 0.4 57.5 56.1 7.9 9.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 10.1 0.4 56.8 56.1 9.8 10.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 6.0 7.8 0.2 54.4 53.5 4.4 5.7 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.2 8.0 7.8 0.3 56.2 55.4 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 6.2 0.4 58.2 56.8 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.6 10.3 0.4 57.5 56.2 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 0.0 1.6 6.2 0.2 54.0 54.5 0.2 1.3 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.7 8.3 0.4 57.1 56.6 7.2 8.3 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.6 6.8 0.2 55.0 55.3 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 8.2 8.2 7.4 0.4 57.7 56.4 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.4 7.0 0.3 56.4 55.8 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.7 6.6 0.5 59.9 57.7 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.1 8.3 0.2 54.6 54.7 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.0 9.2 8.2 0.2 54.2 53.2 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.2 7.2 0.4 59.3 57.2 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.8 10.1 0.3 55.7 54.9 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.3 6.1 0.2 54.4 54.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.8 9.6 10.2 0.4 57.8 56.2 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.4 4.5 0.2 54.1 54.2 2.2 3.1 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 9.4 0.3 56.1 55.8 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.5 9.0 10.0 0.3 55.8 54.8 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.2 9.8 0.4 58.1 56.6 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.5 8.1 0.3 55.5 55.5 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.2 8.6 0.3 54.8 53.9 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.7 6.9 0.5 60.4 56.8 6.3 7.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 9.5 0.3 56.0 54.9 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.0 7.3 8.0 0.3 55.8 54.6 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.0 5.5 0.2 53.7 54.3 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.8 10.4 0.4 57.7 56.3 8.0 9.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------