***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.6 8.2 8.5 0.8 69.6 65.0 6.8 7.4 8.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.1 8.5 1.0 75.0 69.5 6.1 6.9 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 9.6 9.8 8.3 0.9 71.6 66.4 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 3.6 4.1 5.9 0.6 66.7 63.1 2.6 3.4 4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 45 55 100 6.5 6.6 6.2 0.8 70.7 66.3 5.0 5.8 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 5.3 5.7 4.5 1.0 75.3 70.1 4.1 4.7 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.9 8.2 8.6 1.1 75.7 70.1 6.3 7.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 0.0 0.3 4.6 0.9 72.3 67.3 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 7.1 7.3 6.7 0.9 72.4 67.3 5.8 6.5 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 7.1 7.3 5.1 0.8 71.4 66.6 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 6.9 7.0 5.7 0.9 72.4 67.4 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 5.4 5.6 5.3 0.9 72.8 67.6 4.1 4.8 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.7 5.0 1.0 74.9 70.2 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.9 6.7 0.9 72.7 67.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.7 6.5 0.6 65.4 61.9 6.7 7.2 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.9 5.5 0.9 74.0 69.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 8.0 8.3 8.3 1.1 75.5 70.1 6.6 7.2 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 5.1 5.2 4.5 0.9 71.1 66.7 3.9 4.5 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.0 8.4 1.0 74.9 69.2 6.2 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 2.3 2.5 2.9 1.0 72.4 68.4 1.1 1.7 2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 7.2 7.4 7.7 0.8 70.0 65.3 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.4 8.2 1.0 74.9 69.7 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.6 8.0 1.0 75.3 69.1 5.9 6.6 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.2 6.4 0.9 72.1 67.0 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.0 7.5 6.8 0.6 65.8 62.3 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 6.2 6.5 5.1 1.0 74.1 69.8 5.1 5.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.5 8.2 7.7 0.8 68.0 63.9 6.4 7.3 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 5.5 6.0 6.2 0.7 68.6 64.6 4.8 5.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.6 4.0 1.0 72.5 68.0 2.9 3.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 8.0 8.3 8.6 1.0 74.0 68.6 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------