***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 18.5 18.3 18.2 1.2 65.5 62.9 15.7 17.0 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 18.3 18.3 18.1 1.5 68.9 65.0 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.3 18.0 18.2 1.2 64.9 62.8 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.2 16.2 0.7 58.3 57.5 8.1 9.5 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.5 17.7 16.5 0.8 60.0 59.1 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.1 14.8 0.7 58.7 57.1 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 17.9 18.0 18.1 1.5 68.9 64.8 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.4 15.0 1.0 61.1 60.0 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 17.9 17.3 17.0 0.9 61.1 60.2 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.3 15.8 0.9 60.6 59.8 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.5 16.2 0.9 60.8 59.7 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.6 15.9 1.0 61.1 59.9 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.4 15.5 0.9 60.3 58.9 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.1 17.5 16.7 1.0 61.4 60.4 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.5 16.4 0.6 57.6 56.5 15.8 17.0 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.7 15.9 0.8 59.8 58.5 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.5 17.7 17.9 1.5 69.4 65.1 14.9 16.2 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.9 15.1 1.0 60.6 59.9 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 18.0 17.9 18.2 1.4 68.0 64.6 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 12.2 11.8 13.0 1.1 62.5 61.0 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 18.2 17.6 17.6 1.0 61.9 60.7 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 17.2 18.1 17.8 1.4 67.9 64.1 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.2 18.0 18.0 1.3 65.9 63.4 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.9 17.3 16.7 1.0 61.6 60.6 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 18.2 17.7 16.6 0.9 61.7 60.1 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.7 15.1 0.9 60.7 58.8 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 18.0 17.7 17.4 1.1 64.5 62.0 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.4 16.3 0.6 57.2 56.5 15.7 16.9 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.6 14.2 1.0 61.0 60.1 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 18.1 18.0 18.2 1.4 68.1 64.6 15.2 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------