***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.0 19.1 0.5 55.9 55.0 18.0 19.5 20.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.1 19.0 0.5 55.9 54.7 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.1 19.2 0.5 55.4 54.6 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.5 17.3 0.3 53.5 52.8 10.6 12.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 20.5 20.3 17.6 0.4 54.8 54.0 18.3 19.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 18.8 18.8 15.9 0.5 55.9 54.2 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.6 18.9 0.5 55.6 54.5 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.0 16.2 0.5 55.2 53.8 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.8 18.1 0.4 55.1 54.3 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 20.0 19.8 16.9 0.4 54.5 53.5 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.2 17.3 0.5 56.4 54.9 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.3 17.1 0.6 56.8 55.0 17.1 18.7 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.2 16.7 0.6 56.9 55.1 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.3 19.9 17.7 0.1 51.3 51.1 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 19.9 19.5 17.4 0.3 53.5 52.6 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.7 17.1 0.5 56.4 54.7 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.4 19.2 18.6 0.4 54.3 53.3 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.2 16.3 0.2 52.6 52.0 17.4 19.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.8 19.1 0.5 55.6 54.5 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 14.6 14.3 14.0 0.3 52.8 52.1 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.2 20.0 18.7 0.4 54.9 54.3 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.3 19.9 18.6 0.2 52.8 52.1 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.1 19.0 0.4 54.4 53.6 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.6 17.8 0.3 52.9 52.4 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.8 17.5 0.3 53.5 53.1 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.4 16.3 0.5 56.5 54.4 17.4 18.9 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.6 18.2 0.4 54.3 53.8 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.8 17.4 0.3 54.0 53.0 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.3 15.2 0.2 52.3 51.8 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.8 19.2 0.5 56.2 55.1 17.7 19.3 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------